{"id":649,"date":"2017-02-08T15:44:18","date_gmt":"2017-02-08T07:44:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649"},"modified":"2020-07-16T15:47:28","modified_gmt":"2020-07-16T07:47:28","slug":"odds%e5%92%8cprob%e7%9a%84%e5%8c%ba%e5%88%ab%e4%b8%80%e4%b8%aa%e5%b0%8f%e4%be%8b%e5%ad%90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649","title":{"rendered":"Odds\u548cProb\u7684\u533a\u522b(\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4f8b\u5b50)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5728NBA\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d5b\u5b63\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7403\u961f\u9700\u8981\u625382\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4e0a\u8d5b\u5b63\u7403\u961fA\u8d62\u4e8662\u573a\uff0c\u7403\u961fB\u8d62\u4e8640\u573a\uff0c\u5219\u7403\u961fA\u7684\u8d62\u7403\u7387 = 62\/82 = 75.6%\uff0c\u7403\u961fB\u7684\u8d62\u7403\u7387 = 40\/82 = 48.8%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u901a\u8fc7\u767e\u5206\u7387\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u7403\u961fA\u7684<strong>\u80dc\u7387<\/strong>\u8981\u6bd4\u7403\u961fB\u9ad8 75.6% &#8211; 48.8% = <strong>26.8%<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u65b0\u8d5b\u5b63\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\uff0c\u7403\u961fA\u548c\u7403\u961fB\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\u76f8\u9047\uff0c\u67d0\u535a\u5f69\u516c\u53f8\u8981\u5f00\u51fa\u8d54\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8d54\u7387\u600e\u4e48\u5f00\u5462\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>\u5c06A\u961f\u548cB\u961f\u7684\u8d62\u7403\u7387\u6307\u6570\u5316\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u5176\u5b9e\u529b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u7403\u961fA\u7684\u5b9e\u529b = LN(75.6%\/(1-75.6%)) = 1.13<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u7403\u961fB\u7684\u5b9e\u529b = LN(48.8%\/(1-48.8%)) = -0.05<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c<strong>\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u5dee\u7684B\u961f\u51fb\u8d25\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u597d\u7684A\u961f\u7684\u51e0\u7387<\/strong>\u4e3a\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong><em>Odds<\/em><\/strong><em> = 1 <\/em><em>\uff1ae <sup>[1.13-(-0.05)] <\/sup><\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em>= 1 <\/em><em>\uff1ae <sup>1.18<\/sup>\u00a0 <\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em>= <strong>1 <\/strong><\/em><strong><em>\uff1a<\/em> <em>3.25 <\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5047\u5982\u4e0d\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c<strong>\u535a\u5f69\u516c\u53f8\u5f00\u51fa\u7684\u8d54\u7387\u5373\u4e3a\uff1a3.25\u6bd41<\/strong>\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u62ff1\u5757\u94b1\u4e70\u7403\u961fB\u8d62\u7403\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u7403\u961fB\u771f\u7684\u628a\u7403\u961fA\u8d62\u4e86\uff0c\u80fd\u5f97\u52303.25\u5757\u94b1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u800c<strong>\u5b9e\u529b\u8f83\u597d\u7684A\u961f\u8d62\u7403\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e3a<\/strong>\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong><em>Prob<\/em><\/strong><em> =e <sup>1.13<\/sup>\/( e <sup>1.13<\/sup> + e <sup>-0.05<\/sup>) <\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em>= 3.1\/(3.1+0.95) <\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><em>= 0.765 <\/em><em>=<\/em><strong><em> 76.5<\/em><em>%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c<strong>\u5047\u5982\u4e24\u961f\u8981\u62531000\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0cA\u961f\u80fd\u8d62765\u573a\uff0cB\u961f\u80fd\u8d62235\u573a<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">\u5047\u5982\u4e24\u961f\u662f\u5b63\u540e\u8d5b\u5bf9\u624b\uff0c\u8981\u6253\u4e03\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u5219<strong>\u6700\u7ec8\u6bd4\u5206\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a 4:1<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; \u5728NBA\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d5b\u5b63\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7403\u961f\u9700\u8981\u625382\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4e0a\u8d5b\u5b63\u7403\u961fA\u8d62\u4e8662\u573a\uff0c\u7403\u961fB\u8d62\u4e8640\u573a\uff0c\u5219\u7403\u961f [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[10],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v14.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow\" \/>\n<meta name=\"googlebot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"bingbot\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Odds\u548cProb\u7684\u533a\u522b(\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u4f8b\u5b50) - Beneplot\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; \u5728NBA\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d5b\u5b63\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7403\u961f\u9700\u8981\u625382\u573a\u6bd4\u8d5b\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4e0a\u8d5b\u5b63\u7403\u961fA\u8d62\u4e8662\u573a\uff0c\u7403\u961fB\u8d62\u4e8640\u573a\uff0c\u5219\u7403\u961f [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Beneplot\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-02-08T07:44:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-07-16T07:47:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/\",\"name\":\"Beneplot\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?s={search_term_string}\",\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649\",\"name\":\"Odds\\u548cProb\\u7684\\u533a\\u522b(\\u4e00\\u4e2a\\u5c0f\\u4f8b\\u5b50) - Beneplot\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-02-08T07:44:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-07-16T07:47:28+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ea14f85ae789ceaaa712ceee1dd1f95b\"},\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/?p=649\"]}]},{\"@type\":[\"Person\"],\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/#\/schema\/person\/ea14f85ae789ceaaa712ceee1dd1f95b\",\"name\":\"beneplot\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-CN\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/15d96ce801cfddbd59ef2b0d986cd9b1?s=96&r=g\",\"caption\":\"beneplot\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=649"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":650,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649\/revisions\/650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.beneplot.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}